Bet Indicator Key — Run Horse Run

When you expand a race on the Picks page, you'll see a small confidence panel above the runners. Here's how to read it.

Example race

▾ R5 1200m MODERATE WIN

Class3-Y-O & Up, Class 6, Set Weights

★ WIN 34.2% MODERATE

QUIN 18.9% MARGINAL

TRI 17.4% MARGINAL

PLACE 62.7% MODERATE

Each row is a different bet type. The percentage is the estimated chance that bet wins. The tier tells you how confident we are relative to what the model typically produces.

The ★ next to a row means that's the bet type shown on the race header badge.

Tier meanings

Strong High conviction. Top confidence tier we assign.

Moderate Solid signal. Worth serious consideration.

Marginal Signal is above baseline but modest.

Weak Below where we'd suggest a bet.

Bet types

WIN Our top pick finishes 1st.

QUIN Quinella — our top two picks fill 1st and 2nd (in either order).

TRI Boxed trifecta on our top four picks — any three fill the podium.

PLACE Our top pick finishes in the money (top three in most fields).

Race header badge

The badge next to each race title (e.g. MODERATE WIN or STRONG QUIN) shows the strongest recommended bet type for that race — either WIN or QUIN. If a race has no MODERATE or STRONG signal on WIN or QUIN, the badge is hidden.

What the tiers are NOT

Confidence tiers reflect the model's calibrated probability, not a guarantee. A STRONG WIN tier means the model is more confident than usual — not certain. Bet responsibly and stake within your means.